2011 NFL Mock Draft
13 04 2011Ok, it’s been a while, but it’s time to get back at it! Here is my opinion on the first round of the NFL draft this season. X-factors include A) The Mathews factor, which is a team trading their entire draft to get one player. B) the Al Davis Factor, a team making a completely stupid choice, or C) the Bill Belichick factor, which is making more trades than picks, and not being able to predict where they pick at all. So let’s get started!
1. Carolina Panthers: Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama
This is dependent on whether the Panthers decide to try and get their franchise QB now with Blaine Gabbert, or stick it out another year with Matt Moore/Jimmy Clausen/Armanti Edwards? I personally believe they should wait one more year in order to get Andrew Luck next year, who is far better than any of the QB’s this year. Therefore, they take Dareus, a big powerful tackle who fills a hole and disrupts the pocket for years. A lot of people are saying Da’Quan Bowers here, but I’m not sure the Panthers will be a 4-3 team next year. Ron Rivera has always run his defense in a 3-4, and Bowers is a pure 4-3 end.
2. Denver Broncos: Da’Quan Bowers, DE Clemson
With Dareus off the board to the Panthers, the Broncos improve their defensive line on the outside with Bowers,who has an excellent combination of power, speed and athleticism. Though Bowers has had injury concerns, he is still an enormous talent that has too much upside to pass on. Yes, his medical says that he MAY have “long-term injury problems,” but if there’s a player at defensive end without long-term injury concerns, every team would be lining up to take him. He’s either going to go top 10, or in the second round. In my opinion, you don’t let a talent like that slide. If Dareus is still available, the Broncos will look at him. They may also decide to create the best shutdown corner duo in the league with Champ Bailey on one side, and Patrick Peterson on the other.
3. Buffalo Bills: Von Miller, DE/OLB hybrid Texas A&M
Buffalo needs to improve at many spots, and OLB in their 3-4 is one of them. Miller is by far the best prospect for the 3-4 OLB position in this draft, and Buffalo should jump all over him. Miller is an incredible pass rusher who can easily find his way to the QB, he is excellent at setting the edge against the run, he has a lot of power when he tackles, and he has shown that he can cover very well as well. If Buffalo decides not to take Miller, they would probably want to either beef up their defensive line with Nick Fairley or improve their QB situation with either Blaine Gabbert or even Cam Newton. Chan Gailey has shown a liking for spread QB’s in the past, and the Heisman winning Newton could excel in his system.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, WR Georgia
The Batman and Robin crew of Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco are on their way out of Cincy, and the Bengals have some rebuilding to do. A.J. Green is a prospect that will make an immediate impact in the NFL, no matter what team he plays for. Green can be a dominant vertical threat, and he also runs routes very well. New OC Jay Gruden has always liked his big physical receivers, and Green is exactly that. He has the potential to be the next Calvin Johnson. With Carson Palmer’s vow to never set foot in Paul Brown Stadium again, the Bengals may look to add a new franchise QB.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Blaine Gabbert, QB Mizzou
We all saw the Cardinals in the Super Bowl a few years ago, barely losing to the Steelers. Then the next year, they once again looked like a dominant offensive force, just missing out on the NFC Championship game. Then Kurt Warner retired. That effectively ended everything, and we saw how much Kurt Warner really meant to the Cardinal’s success. Arizona needs to bounce back and take the best QB in this years draft. Gabbert had an excellent Pro Day, answering all questions about his accuracy, and then had a good score on the Wonderlic testing, for what that’s worth. Gabbert would also have one of the best targets in the league to throw to with Larry Fitzgerald, which would make it a little easier for him in the NFL. Arizona would also like an upgrade at OLB, perhaps taking a look at Robert Quinn.
6. Cleveland Browns: Julio Jones, WR Alabama
Last season, I actually didn’t think Colt McCoy had the tools to be an effective NFL QB. This past season, he proved me wrong, and I think they should now surround him with talent. The entire left side of the OL is solid with Joe Thomas, Eric Steinback and Alex Mack, so McCoy has protection. All he needs now is a big and fast target, which Jones can easily supply. The fastest WR the combine ran his 4.39 40 yard dash on a stress fracture in his foot, showing that his physical assets are off the charts. After his amazing combine, Jones will definitely be a high pick, and he is a good fit with the Browns. However, Cleveland may add Patrick Peterson just for his pure talent and potential.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
I personally believe that Peterson is the best talent in the NFL draft this year. He has incredible size at 6’2″, 225lbs, he had an incredible combine, running a 4.34 40…and then there’s his tape. Peterson will step into the NFL and instantly become a shutdown corner in the mold of Champ Bailey and even Deion Sanders. San Fran would be thanking their lucky stars if they can steal Peterson at 7, as CB is one of their biggest teams needs. If Peterson is gone at this point, the 49ers would perhaps take Nick Fairley to improve the middle of their defensive line.
8. Tennessee Titans: Cam Newton, QB Auburn
Vince Young will NOT be back in Tennessee, and Kerry Collins is too old to be a staring quarterback. The Titans badly need a quarterback, and they will be willing to take a chance on Newton, who is the biggest question mark in this years draft. At 6’6″ and 250lbs, with a cannon arm, good accuracy, and an incredible ability to scramble and extend the play, the Heisman winner has all the physical tools to be a successful NFL quarterback, but there are many doubters about his ability to lead a pro offensive playbook. The biggest worry for the Titans is that Newton will be a Vince Young 2.0. However, the Titans have to be desperate enough to give him a chance. If not, they will be going defensive line with maybe Nick Fairley.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith, OT USC
Cowboys fans will be screaming for Prince Amukamara here to replace Mike Jenkins, but Jenkins is still very young, and he already has a Pro Bowl under his belt. He’s had only one iffy year, which is not enough to give up on a player of his caliber. The Cowboys will instead draft the replacement for Flozell Adams with Smith, who like Flozell, is a little undersized, but has very good footwork. If the Cowboys decide not to go with Smith, they may draft Amukamara after all.
10. Washington: Prince Amukumara, CB Nebraska
The Redskins have a few major holes, including QB, WR and CB…but neither QB or WR have enough value left for the 10th overall pick. However, Prince Amukamara is still available and he is definitely a pick that would improve the Redskins secondary. If the Redskins decide that WR or QB is their true first round need, then they will probably trade to the end of the first round and try to pick up Jack Locker or Torrey Smith, with maybe a third round pick or a 2012 second rounder packaged along with it. However, Amukamara will very likely be taken no matter what at 10.
12. Houston Texans: Robert Quinn, DE/OLB North Carolina
What the Texans really need is more help in their secondary, but the value of secondary players severely drops off after Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara. The Texans are also looking for another pass rushing option on the other side of Mario Williams, and Robert Quinn is definitely what they are looking for. Wade Phillips will be converting the Texans to a 3-4 defense, and his defenses have always revolves around great linebackers. With a starting linebacking corps of Quinn, Williams, Demeco Ryans, and Brian Cushing, this defense could actually intimidate offenses, which would be a 180 turnaround from last year. This would also open the door for their offense to be more balanced. They could also pick up a guy like Cameron Jordan, Nick Fairley or J.J. Watt to beef up their defensive line.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Nick Fairley, DT Auburn
The Minnesota Vikings are a team that would be completely built for now, if only they had a quarterback that could get them there. However, at 12, all the true franchise players will be gone, and unless they reached for Jake Locker, they would be better suited to go after Donovan McNabb or Kevin Kolb. On the other side of the ball, their defensive backfield could use a little more youth, but they could address that in the second round. However, Pat Williams, though still a very effective plug in the defensive line, is almost 40 years old. Nick Fairley is a very disruptive tackle that is explosive off the snap, and is very good at shedding blocks. They could also opt for a defensive end like Cameron Jordan or Aldon Smith in case Ray Edwards is not re-signed.
13. Detroit Lions: Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College
Matthew Stafford is SO obviously the answer in Detroit. If he ever plays 16 games, he could carry the Lions to at least 8 wins. However, history has shown that that is a huge if. So the Lions need to protect him, with a tackle that some consider to be the best in this years class. The fate of the franchise literally depends on Matt Stafford staying vertically upright. If they don’t want Castonzo, then they could go for Gabe Carimi, who is also very good, with a massive mean streak.
14. St. Louis Rams: J.J. Watt, DE/DT, Wisconsin
J.J Watt is a special player that can play almost every single position on the d-line, with the exception of the one technique, which he would not play in St. Louis. Watt could be a big bulky seven on the end of the line, and he has the size and skillset to play inside at the three as well. J.J. Watt would be a great fit for the Rams, who need help at all places on the line, except for Chris Long’s DE spot. The Rams may opt for a pure DT with Phil Taylor or Corey Liuget, or maybe a pure DE like Cameron Jordan or Aldon Smith.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
Ronnie Brown is a UFA (when there is free agency), and Ricky Williams has directly stated that he does NOT want to be a Miami Dolphin next season. That leaves the Dolphins without a bellcow running back, and Tony Sparano has always run his offense around a powerful running back. The Heisman winner Mark Ingram is a great fit for the Dolphins, as a big, powerful back with solid speed. The only question about Ingram is the high mileage he has. Ingram got more than 570 touches in his NCAA career with 3,261 rushing yards. His career might be shortened by the heavy workload. If not running back, the Dolphins might look to pick up an interior lineman, like Mike Pouncey or Danny Watkins.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue
The Jaguars have struggled with their pass rush lately, with only 40 sacks in the past two years. They signed Aaron Kampman to help them out last season, but his consistent injury issues came back, and he missed a good portion of the season last year. Ryan Kerrigan is a proven pass-rushing talent, that has actually compared to Aaron Kampman in his style, only without the health issues. Kerrigan would be a great fit for the Jags 4-3 defense, and would be a solid contributor. The Jags may also go for Aldon Smith as a pass-rusher, or go for a safety with Rahim Moore.
17. New England Patriots (from Oakland): Aldon Smith, DE/OLB Mizzou
I would like to thank the Raiders for giving up their first round pick, because that means they won’t be making the stupidest first round pick ever that I have to try and predict. That being said, it’ll still be a pretty tough call for New England at this point, because they may or may not be picking at 17. However, if Aldon Smith is available here, New England should jump all over him. Smith is a natural and explosive pass-rusher who still has plenty of upside, which is exactly what the toothless New England defense needs right now. Smith missed a lot of his junior season with a broken leg, but that shouldn’t hurt his stock, as he fully participated at both the combine and his pro day.
18. San Diego Chargers: Cameron Jordan, DE California
The San Diego d-line needs an upgrade right now, with Jacques Cesaire aging and needing to be replaced. Jordan is a prototypical 3-4 defensive end who has been compared to Richard Seymour. He can plug a hole and contain on passing downs, as well as being able to bull through the line and blow up the pocket on passing downs. San Diego would instantly be upgraded with the addition of Jordan. If Jordan is gone, they would maybe opt for Muhammad Wilkerson, Phil Taylor, Corey Liuget or Cameron Heyward.
19. New York Giants: Nate Solder, OT Colorado
My friend who is a Giants fan challenged me this year to “Name three f**king players on the Giants offensive line! Oh right, you can’t!” Offensive line must be addressed in the first round for the G-Men, and Solder is a solid left tackle who will be able to contribute immediately, and then be a very effective tackle down the road. It really depends on where they want to go with their offensive line. They could also go with the nasty Gabe Carimi, or pick up an inside guy like Danny Watkins or Mike Pouncey. If they feel that linebacker is more of a concern, they could choose Akeem Ayers from UCLA.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa
Tampa had a huge improvement this last season, going from an abysmal 2-14 to 10-6, but they still missed out on the playoffs in a tough division. Their defensive ends desperately need to upgrade, because in a division that has Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and possibly Blaine Gabbert/Cam Newton/Andrew Luck in the future, Tampa needs to be able to disturb those passers. Adrian Clayborn is a strong and powerful defensive end who can get after the passer, as well as being a strong run defender. There are concerns about his shoulder, but if he is left at right end, he can still cause havoc. If not Clayborn, maybe Justin Houston or Brooks Reed.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Phil Taylor NT, Baylor
The Chiefs continue to overhaul their defensive line, with their big nose tackle. Their last two d-line picks of Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey have worked, but Jackson is definitely a DE, and ehile Dorsey was initially drafted as a tackle, he is better suited as a five technique in the Chiefs 3-4 scheme. Scott Pioli should take Taylor, a strong tackle who is excellent at stuffing the run, who has the size to (335 lbs) to be a professional nose tackle. If they decide to go elsewhere, they could go o-line with Gabe Carimi.
22. Indianapolis Colts; Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin
Peyton Manning doesn’t have many years left, and he needs to stay upright, so the Colts need to take the left tackle who is the most pro ready tackle prospect in the draft (just ask him). Carimi has good size, strength and footwork, and is a nasty SOB who will destroy you in a phonebooth. This is a must draft for the Colts, but if they don’t take Carimi, they could look at Nate Solder or Derek Sherrod, or maybe Mike Pouncey.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Aaron Williams, DB Texas
Aaron Williams is one of the fast risers in these weeks before the draft, and he fits a need for the Eagles right now. The Eagles struggled a bit in their pass defense last year, and they need a defensive back. Aaron Williams is a hybrid DB who can play both corner and safety. Williams is both talented in one on one coverage, and he has the size and ball awareness skills to play deep in the Eagles defensive scheme. This pick would make sense for the Eagles. The Eagles may also just choose to improve their offensive line with Derek Sherrod or Nate SOlder, or they might try to improve their outside linebacker situation with Akeem Ayers.
24. New Orleans Saints: Akeem Ayers, OLB UCLA
While not many people see the Saints taking a linebacker, it is a big need for New Orleans. The loss of Scott Fujita last year was a bigger loss than it seemed, as the Saints lost a reliable tackler of running backs who was good in coverage as well. Ayers is very versatile, with good tackling ability, is solid in coverage, and he can also get in the backfield to take down running backs and get after the quaterback. Ayers would fit well with Gregg Williams aggressive defensive play-calling. The Saints may decide to add a good defensive lineman like Corey Liuget or Muhammad Wilkerson.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Jake Locker, QB Washington
This pick makes so much sense its almost scary. The Seahawks need a quarterback, and Locker played at Washington, which is basically RIGHT IN Seattle. Yes, the Seahawks already have Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst, but Hasselbeck’s career is very close to ending, and Whitehurst didn’t really impress enough to earn a starting job. Locker may not start as a rookie, but give him the reins in two, maybe three years, and he could be the best of all the quarterbacks from this year. If not Locker, the Seahawks may go for a tackle like Solder or Sherrod.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado
Some argue that safety is a bigger need for the Ravens, but at least the Ravens have a good safety out of the two that they would start (and by good, what I really mean is AMAZING). Baltimore has 0 quality starting corners, and Jimmy Smith would help that. Smith is good in one on one cover skills, but has the size if he ever needed to convert to safety. Also, that insane front seven would make him thrive in that system. Smith does have a bad rep for having character issues, but he actually hasn’t had any run-ins with the law or any former coaches. It’s not him personally that has issue, it’s just his family that has a history. Nevertheless, strong leadership from John Harbaugh, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed would keep him in check in case anything happened. If they decided to take a pure safety, Rahim Moore would be an option.
27. Atlanta Falcons: Mike Pouncey, OL Florida
Atlanta doesn’t necessarily have a huge need in the middle of their line, but hey, Mike Pouncey’s available. Pouncey could potentially go top 15, so if he slips this far, there is no way Atlanta would let him go any further. It’s just a best player available right now. If not, they could go WR with Torrey Smith, safety with Rahim Moore, or DE with Brooks Reed or Justin Houston.
28. New England Patriots: Danny Watkins OL, Baylor
Bill Belicheck may use this moment to make his 7th trade of the day, but if he stays put, he should go for Watkins. Watkins is a great fit for a Patriots team that is A) looking for a guard with Stephen Neal retiring, and the possibility of Logan Mankins leaving via free agency, and B) built for now. Watkins isn’t a 15 year player, as at the age of 27, he has maybe 7 or 8 years max before he retires. That being said, Tom Brady only has about 4 or 5 seasons left, and when Tom goes, so does the Patriots dominance. They may decide to go with defensive line depth with Muhammad Wilkerson or Allen Bailey.
29. Chicago Bears: Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi State
How many times did Jay Cutler get sacked last year? And if he wasn’t sacked, he was getting massive pressure in his face, which forced some nasty interceptions. DeAngelo Hall should have Cutler to the Pro Bowl with him. So the Bears need to address that immediately if they want to get back to the Super Bowl again. Derek Sherrod is a reliable tackle who would eventually turn into the starting left tackle. If not OL, they could take a safety like Rahim Moore.
30. New York Jets: Cameron Heyward, DL Ohio State
Rex Ryan really likes disruptive defensive lineman, and Heyward is exactly that. Anybody who watched the Sugar Bowl where he destroyed the Arkansas offensive line knows how disruptive he can be. Ryan Mallett certainly knows. He’s very similar to what a young Shaun Ellis would be like, and Ellis is a free agent from the Jets tight now. Heyward would be a great five technique in Ryans system, and he also has an NFL pedigree. The Jets could also look to pick up Rahim Moore to help out their safety situation, or they could add Torrey Smith to make up for the possible loss of Santonio Holmes or Braylon Edwards (or both).
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Benjamin Ijalana, OL Villanova
The Steelers just made the Super Bowl, so obviously, they have a pretty good team right now as it is. So the best player available right now is Benjamin Ijalana, a versatile lineman who can play anywhere on the line. However, he is a project player that would have to be developed. The Steelers love those guys though. If not Ijalana, then perhaps Moore to play opposite Troy Polamalu, or Torrey Smith to join this receiving corps.
32. Green Bay Packers: Muhammad Wilkerson, DL Temple
It’s not easy looking for problems when you’re holding a Lombardi Trophy, but at this point in the draft, they are going to take a player that can sub in often, and provide high quality depth. Wilkerson is a solid player that would help the Packers d-line, which is solid enough, but was hit hard by injuries last year. If the same happened this year, Wilkerson would be able to step and start without the line missing a beat. If not WIlkerson, then they may target Torrey Smith to help their spread offense.
So that’s it! Feel free to leave me a comment if you disagree with anything! Follow me on Twitter at @realDReynolds for more of pretty much anything, or add me on Facebook at facebook.com/dreynolds92
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